The consumer backdrop entering 2026 is best described as measured rather than exuberant. Data from Bank of America Institute, paired with commentary from major investment banks, suggest a consumer that remains resilient but increasingly selective. Income growth is present across cohorts, spending activity stabilized through late 2025, and tax refunds are expected to provide a near-term lift. However, the structural divides that have characterized the post-pandemic economy—particularly the “K-shaped” consumer—remain firmly in place. As a result, the path forward for consumer-driven sectors in 2026 appears incremental and uneven rather than broadly expansionary.
While much of the data shaping the 2026 consumer outlook is macroeconomic in nature, the implications extend directly into travel and hospitality. Uneven income growth, rising price sensitivity, and the timing of tax refunds all influence how, when, and where consumers choose to travel. As this report progresses, we examine how these trends translate into demand across lodging segments, pricing behavior, and capital market activity—highlighting why the outlook for hotels is likely to remain selective rather than uniform.
Disposable personal income is expected to grow across all income quintiles in 2026, though the pace and distribution of those gains remain uneven. Bank of America internal data show that after-tax wage growth slowed across income cohorts toward the end of 2025. Lower-income households posted approximately 1.1% year-over-year wage growth in December, while middle-income households slowed to roughly 1.5% and higher-income households to about 3.0%.
While this deceleration warrants monitoring, the key takeaway is that income growth differentials are no longer widening materially. The gap between higher- and lower-income households has stabilized rather than expanded. This suggests that the consumer economy is not deteriorating, but it is also not reaccelerating. Income gains appear sufficient to support incremental spending capacity rather than fuel a broad-based surge in consumption.
The uneven nature of consumer spending continues to define the landscape. Higher-income households remain responsible for a disproportionate share of total consumption, a dynamic that persisted throughout 2025 and into early 2026. Bank of America card data indicate that higher-income households recorded roughly 2.4% year-over-year spending growth late in 2025.
Lower-income households saw spending growth of approximately 0.4% year over year. Importantly, this gap has remained relatively stable over the past six months. The absence of further divergence suggests resilience at the lower end, even as absolute spending power remains concentrated at the top. Lower-income households continue to participate in the consumer economy, but their behavior is increasingly shaped by price sensitivity and necessity rather than discretionary expansion.
Backward-looking spending data from late 2025 provide insight into how consumers are navigating this environment. Holiday spending delivered solid year-over-year growth, with Bank of America reporting a 4.7% increase in spending on holiday-related categories between early October and early January.
This growth was driven primarily by transaction volume rather than higher prices. Consumers leaned into earlier shopping and smaller-ticket purchases. The share of transactions under $100 increased or remained stable across categories such as electronics, clothing, and general merchandise.
While the “K-shaped” pattern persisted, the gap between income groups was narrower in holiday spending than in overall consumption. This suggests that consumers across income levels were able to stretch dollars through deal-seeking and purchase timing, particularly during peak seasonal periods.
Uneven income growth has meaningful implications for lodging demand. Slower income gains among lower-income households do not necessarily imply reduced travel participation, but they do point to heightened price sensitivity. This may translate into shorter stays, lower nightly rates, or substitution toward more value-oriented accommodations rather than a complete pullback from travel.
Middle-income households, which experienced comparatively stronger income growth earlier in the cycle, may be better positioned to support demand for midscale and upper-midscale properties. These segments may benefit disproportionately from incremental income gains that support discretionary travel without stretching budgets.
Higher-income travelers continue to spend selectively, prioritizing quality and experience over frequency. At the same time, capital markets reflect a cautious stance toward hotels. Recent REIT screening shows limited institutional interest in hotel REITs relative to other real estate sub-sectors, suggesting restrained liquidity and muted enthusiasm for the sector at the asset level.
One of the most tangible supports for consumer spending in early 2026 is the projected increase in tax refunds. Provisions within the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, combined with unadjusted IRS withholdings in 2025, are expected to result in refunds that are approximately $65 billion higher than the prior year—an 18% increase. Most payments are expected to be distributed between February and April.
Refunds represent a significantly larger share of average monthly spending for lower-income households than for middle- or higher-income groups. Bank of America deposit data show that lower-income households were the only cohort for which the average refund exceeded average monthly spending.
Historical patterns reinforce this dynamic. In the three weeks following receipt of a tax refund, spending increased meaningfully across goods, travel, and leisure categories. The proportional boost was largest for lower-income households, with goods spending rising roughly 25% overall and closer to 40% for lower-income consumers, with similar increases across electronics, furniture and home improvement, and apparel.
Despite this near-term boost, refund-driven spending is best viewed as temporary rather than structural. While refunds may briefly narrow the K-shaped dynamic, longer-term momentum remains dependent on labor market conditions and sustained wage growth.
Commentary from Goldman Sachs highlights rising auto and credit card delinquencies concentrated primarily among subprime borrowers. These trends are framed as credit score migration effects rather than broad-based consumer deterioration, suggesting that stress remains contained rather than systemic.
A key question is whether refund-related spending merely pauses the K-shaped dynamic or meaningfully narrows it beyond the spring months.
Another consideration is whether discretionary demand holds once one-time cash-flow events fade and consumers revert to income-driven spending behavior.
Finally, shifts in income growth, inflation trends, and interest rate expectations will shape consumer behavior and investment outcomes. Early data suggest that consumer strength continues to translate unevenly across sectors and asset types.
Taken together, the outlook for consumer spending in 2026 points to stability rather than acceleration. Income growth is present but uneven; the K-shaped dynamic remains intact, and tax refunds are likely to provide a meaningful yet temporary lift—particularly lower-income households—without fundamentally altering longer-term trends. For businesses and investors, this environment favors selectivity over scale and discipline over broad-based optimism. As the year progresses, careful monitoring of labor markets, discretionary demand, and regional performance will be essential. For those seeking to better understand how these consumer and economic dynamics translate into actionable insights for specific markets, assets, or strategies, we encourage you to contact our team to discuss how we can help navigate the evolving landscape in 2026.
Jourdyn leads the strategic marketing initiatives for NewGen Advisory, overseeing brand development, market positioning, communications, and business growth efforts across the firm.
With more than a decade of experience in marketing and business development, Jourdyn specializes in building brands, creating demand-generation strategies, developing thought leadership programs, and executing integrated marketing campaigns that drive measurable business results. Her expertise spans digital marketing, public relations, content strategy, events, social media, lead generation, and corporate communications.
At NewGen, Jourdyn is responsible for shaping and executing the firm’s marketing strategy, ensuring consistent brand visibility across all channels while supporting advisors, clients, and strategic initiatives nationwide. She works closely with leadership to develop campaigns, elevate industry presence, strengthen client engagement, and position NewGen as a trusted advisor within the hospitality investment sector.
Jourdyn holds a Bachelor of Arts in Mass Communication and Media Studies from Arizona State University and a Master of Business Administration (MBA) with an emphasis in Marketing from Grand Canyon University.
Most mornings you’ll find Jourdyn in the gym before sunrise and spending time with her husband and children.
Allysia Howerton joined NewGen Advisory in 2026 as a Pipeline & Transaction Assistant, relocating from St. Louis, MO to Arizona to take on the role. She brings a background spanning property management, client services, sales, and administrative leadership, with a track record of managing complex workflows and keeping transactions moving efficiently from inception to close.
Known for her organization, attention to detail, and relationship-driven approach, Allysia supports transaction management, pipeline coordination, and day-to-day brokerage operations — and is passionate about growing her career within the hospitality real estate industry.
Outside of work, she enjoys discovering new coffee shops and restaurants, traveling to experience new cultures, and spending time with her dogs.
2 years
Josie Numedahl joined NewGen Advisory in July 2024 as a Real Estate Assistant (REA). Originally from Iowa, she relocated to Arizona to pursue her education, graduating from Grand Canyon University in 2022 with a Bachelor’s degree in Marketing and Advertising.
Josie began her professional career as a recruiter in the finance and accounting sector, and brings that client-facing, detail-oriented background to her work at NewGen.
Outside of work, she enjoys reading, hiking, exploring local coffee shops, and spending time with friends.
X years
Anthony is the Staff Accountant for NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC, working directly under CFO Michael Lepore to handle day-to-day accounting functions across all NewGen operations.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets.
Prior to joining NewGen, Anthony completed coursework at Paradise Valley Community College before co-founding a family business that produced custom-wrapped die-cast model cars for corporate clients — handling vehicle customization, display stands, and branded packaging. Serving as Director of Operations, he gained hands-on experience in management, production workflows, and running a business from the ground up.
Outside of work, Anthony is a lifelong ice hockey player with a passion for motorsports — particularly motocross and classic cars. Among his favorites: the 1963 C2 Corvette Sting Ray, the 1965 Shelby Cobra S/C, and the 1971 Plymouth Hemi ‘Cuda. He hopes to one day own and operate a bookkeeping firm serving small businesses.
X years
Nick serves as Director of Operations for NewGen Worldwide and NewGen Advisory, bringing a detail-oriented, forward-thinking approach to supporting the company’s continued growth. A Minneapolis native, Nick studied at Denison University and the University of Minnesota before making his way to Arizona, where he now lives in Mesa.
He spent a decade in the hospitality industry as a server, bartender, and restaurant manager — hands-on experience that gave him a strong operational foundation and a natural fit within NewGen’s hospitality-focused business.
Outside of work, Nick is an avid writer with a passion for art, photography, and travel, and enjoys documenting his experiences through the lens.
X years
Nycole serves as Chief of Staff at NewGen Advisory, where she trains and manages the Real Estate Assistant (REA) team. She works closely with REAs to ensure agents receive consistent, high-quality support throughout every stage of a deal — from contract to close.
Alongside the Office Manager, Nycole leads onboarding for new agents, REAs, and team members across NewGen Worldwide’s subsidiaries, and has developed a training library to streamline the process for incoming staff. She is also actively involved in evaluating and implementing new platforms to improve agent and REA workflows, while providing leadership with the data needed to monitor KPIs and track revenue goals.
Her background in franchise operations management — spanning startups to scaling franchises — makes her a versatile and valuable member of the NewGen team.
20+ years
Michael is the Chief Financial Officer of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment and capital solutions firm focused on creative, flexible solutions. Michael and his team oversee day-to-day accounting, budgeting, forecasting, and financial modeling across all NewGen operations.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets.
Prior to joining NewGen, Michael built over 20 years of experience in accounting, tax, and operations management serving small to mid-sized businesses. He holds active CPA licenses in both New York and Arizona. His career spans public accounting — including a role as Audit Manager at PricewaterhouseCoopers — as well as private accounting and business ownership, giving him a broad, hands-on command of accounting and management functions. That dual perspective allows him to bring both tax strategy and business strategy to bear when evaluating financial decisions. He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) and the Arizona Society of Certified Public Accountants (ASCPA).
A proud Italian-American, Michael lives in Scottsdale with his wife, Patty, and their three children, Alyssa, Anthony, and Joey. Outside of work, he coaches ice hockey and has a passion for cooking Italian food.
X years
Kyle is a co-founder, Principal, and Chief Executive Officer of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment firm focused on creative, flexible solutions. Beyond his broad responsibilities as CEO, Kyle’s primary focus is leading Green Card Fund, developing and implementing capital solutions domestically and internationally, and identifying attractive investment opportunities.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets — a natural evolution of NewGen Worldwide’s business model, built on business partners Girish Patel and Dan Rama’s lifetime experience in the industry. Kyle’s financial acumen and creative approach to structuring deals help NewGen Advisory clients identify and secure profitable opportunities.
Kyle earned a B.A. in Interdisciplinary Studies from Arizona State University with a focus in Business and Urban Planning. He has long been involved with the Greater Phoenix Economic Council’s (GPEC) International Leadership Council, and in 2016 was elected to the Board of Directors of Invest in the USA (IIUSA), the national EB-5 trade association, where he actively contributes to legislative reform efforts and the permanent reauthorization of the EB-5 program.
Kyle splits his time between company offices in Phoenix, AZ and Washington, D.C. Outside of work, he is an avid reader, global traveler, and snowboarder — and after logging over a million miles as a passenger, he has recently taken to the cockpit, learning to fly himself.
20+ years
Girish Patel is a co-founder and Principal of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment and capital solutions firm focused on creative, flexible solutions across hospitality and healthcare. Among his core responsibilities are leading strategic initiatives, overseeing financial management, and driving real estate investment acquisitions.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets — a natural evolution of NewGen Worldwide’s business model, grounded in Girish’s and business partner Dan Rama’s lifetime experience in the industry. Having grown up in his family’s hotel business as an immigrant, Girish developed a bottom-up understanding of hospitality — mastering operations before becoming an investor, lender, and consultant. That ground-level perspective, tested across multiple economic cycles, underpins his 20+ years as a successful business owner and brings a distinctive depth of insight to NGA’s clients and investors.
Committed to continuous learning and giving back, Girish established the RC Patel Memorial Scholarship for students pursuing careers in real estate investment. He also serves on the Board of Directors of Global Ties Arizona, an organization that strengthens international relationships by making exchange programs more impactful.
X years
Dan is a co-founder and Principal of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment and capital solutions firm focused on creative, flexible solutions. His primary role is leading NewGen Advisory and serving as its Designated Broker in Arizona.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets — a natural evolution of NewGen Worldwide’s business model, built on Dan’s and business partner Girish Patel’s lifetime experience in the industry. Throughout his career, Dan has been involved in the disposition of over $600 million in hospitality assets, advising clients on acquisitions, mergers, and divestitures across the United States.
Dan began his career as a hotel operator and owner in 1994 following his studies at the University of Arizona, going on to build a portfolio as a franchisee of Red Brick Pizza, Holiday Inn, Ramada Inn, and Comfort Suites. He holds General Manager Certifications from Holiday Inn, Motel 6, and Days Inn, and is a Certified Hotel Owner (CHO) with a Certification for Hotel Industry Analytics (CHIA).
Beyond his company responsibilities, Dan is an active industry voice. He serves as an Ambassador with the Asian American Hotel Owners Association (AAHOA) — the largest hospitality owners association in the U.S. — and previously served as its Southwest Regional Director. He also sits on the Board of Directors of the Arizona Lodging and Tourism Association (AZLTA).
Dan lives in Gilbert, AZ with his wife, Chetna, their son Suraj, and their daughter Sonya. Outside of work, he enjoys golf and cheering on the Denver Broncos.
15+ years
Suraj is the Chief Legal Officer of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and a member of its senior leadership team, where he contributes to the operational management and strategic planning of the company and its subsidiaries — including Green Card Fund and NewGen Advisory. NewGen Worldwide is a diversified firm engaged in real estate investments, creative capital solutions, and advisory services for the entrepreneurial investor.
Suraj first served as outside counsel for Green Card Fund and NewGen Worldwide from 2008 to 2014 before joining the organization as Chief Legal Officer. In this role, he leads the company’s legal, regulatory, and corporate governance functions, with responsibility spanning real estate, risk management, contractual relations, and investment strategies. He also oversees the business administration of NewGen Advisory, a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets.
Prior to joining NewGen, Suraj was Managing Partner of Bhakta & Associates, PLLC, a full-service business law firm where he represented a broad range of clients across acquisitions and sales, corporate structuring, contracts, franchise law, development and construction, and equity and debt financing.
A native of Ohio, Suraj graduated from The Ohio State University in 1999 with a B.S. in Business Administration and earned his J.D. from Case Western Reserve University in 2002. He resides in Peoria, AZ with his wife, Neena, and their two sons, Shiv and Soham.
