The global hospitality and real estate sectors enter the final quarter of 2025 with an unmistakable theme — fragile optimism. While markets push toward new highs and capital costs begin to ease, sentiment across hotels, REITs, and foreign economies remains cautious. The story of 2025 isn’t one of collapse or exuberance, but recalibration — a balancing act between resilience and realism.
Hotel owners, investors, and lenders are learning to operate in a “flat is the new up” environment. REITs, while showing marginal improvement, continue to lag the broader equity market. Meanwhile, the global economic picture remains clouded by inconsistent data, political turbulence, and divergent growth forecasts.
This environment is shaping a hospitality sector that is both hopeful and hesitant — poised for recovery but constrained by uncertainty.
The REIT market’s story in 2025 has been one of underperformance despite improving conditions. Year-to-date, REITs are down approximately 0.6%, while the S&P 500 has gained over 15%, pushing to new all-time highs. Despite a slight uptick in September (+0.4%), the sector continues to lag—underperforming the broader market by roughly 1,510 basis points year-to-date.
The data shows that REIT BBB-rated borrowing costs have fallen by 22 basis points since Q2, with all-in borrowing costs on 10-year REIT BBB paper now at 5.10%. The 10-year Treasury yield has edged down 11 basis points, while spreads have compressed by a similar amount—suggesting improved access to capital and lower financing costs.
However, investor sentiment has not improved in parallel. Despite these favorable shifts, the average REIT FFO yield sits at 6.40%, just 127 basis points above the BBB yield. The narrowing spread underscores that risk appetite remains constrained—investors demand more assurance before re-engaging in the sector.
Interestingly, data continues to support that REITs trading at significant discounts to NAV have been outperforming their premium peers. Over the past 12 months, REITs trading at a 20% discount posted median returns of +8.8%, compared to +4.7% for those trading at a 20% premium. This divergence reflects market discipline—investors reward undervalued, fundamentally sound companies rather than chasing growth narratives.
For hotel REITs specifically, the challenge remains even more acute. With hotels occupying the lowest range of FFO multiples across sectors, investor enthusiasm remains muted. Take-private activity, once seen as a potential catalyst, has struggled to gain traction amid limited buyer appetite and macro uncertainty.
At the recent Lodging Conference, industry tone could be summarized in two words: fragile and frustrated. While debt availability and capital liquidity have improved, fundamental demand growth remains stagnant.
Across most hotel operators, the consensus is that the next 12 months will be low or no growth in both ADR (Average Daily Rate) and RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room). Leisure demand is showing signs of fatigue, and corporate travel has yet to return to pre-pandemic momentum. Owners and operators alike expressed muted confidence, echoing that “it’s tough”—a phrase repeated throughout conference discussions.
Despite soft fundamentals, transaction activity has ticked up, driven by more attractively priced debt and more realistic seller expectations. Deals exceeding $200 million are crossing the finish line again, though buyers are highly selective. Most deals begin to “pencil” at 8.0%–8.5% cap rates, where leveraged returns begin to look compelling.
Debt markets remain open—with SOFR+250-300 bps pricing common and all-in rates in the 6%-7% range. However, investors remain patient, preferring to deploy capital into sectors with stronger thematic conviction, such as data centers or industrial real estate.
A recurring complaint among hotel owners at the Lodging Conference was the continued proliferation of new hotel brands, which many see as unnecessary and confusing to both guests and investors. Hilton recently introduced its 25th brand, the Outset Collection, joining a growing list of recent rollouts such as Tempo by Hilton, Motto by Hilton, and Spark by Hilton.
Owners expressed that while these new concepts are marketed as innovative or lifestyle-focused, they often dilute brand equity rather than enhance it. Many feel the strategy is more about large hotel brands expanding their franchise portfolios and fee structures than improving owner economics or addressing operational challenges.
This sentiment was widespread among conference attendees, who voiced frustration that new brand introductions have done little to stimulate demand or strengthen property-level profitability. Instead, they add complexity to an already crowded marketplace—one where differentiation is increasingly difficult, and loyalty fragmentation continues to rise.
While REITs and hotels grapple with fundamentals, the macroeconomic backdrop remains uneven. The Conference Board’s forecast projects U.S. GDP growth at just 1.6% for 2025, lagging behind Europe—a projection that many analysts find questionable given Europe’s ongoing structural and political challenges.
By contrast, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model estimates Q3 GDP growth at 3.8%, suggesting a much stronger near-term performance. For the Conference Board’s pessimistic annual projection to materialize, Q4 GDP would need to turn negative, an unlikely scenario given recent consumer resilience and investment trends.
A more moderate outlook seems appropriate—acknowledging slowing growth without forecasting contraction. For hospitality, this implies a stable if unspectacular backdrop: steady domestic demand but limited tailwinds from international travel.
As 2025 unfolds, investors face a paradoxical environment—lower financing costs but limited conviction. The debt markets are open, cap rates are attractive, and yet, investors remain cautious.
The modest decline in REIT borrowing costs provides breathing room for owners facing maturities or considering refinancings. For hotels, where debt yields hover around 11-12%, this flexibility is invaluable. However, equity investors are still demanding strong narratives—cash-flow visibility, management alignment, and local market depth.
With broad-based enthusiasm absent, deals must “check every ”box”—reliable cash flow, operational upside, and compelling stories to justify investment committee approval. Thematic plays, such as urban repositioning or group-focused luxury assets in convention-heavy cities like Las Vegas and Chicago, continue to attract attention.
Yet, as September data revealed, RevPAR fell 2.4%, marking one of the sharpest monthly declines since 2010 (outside the pandemic). Occupancy softness continues to drag on performance, reminding sellers that liquidity windows may not stay open forever.
Foreign travel remains a key uncertainty for the U.S. hospitality sector, accounting for nearly 30% of room revenue annually. Yet, economic and political instability in key source markets threatens inbound tourism.
The takeaway is clear: global headwinds and unreliable data from major economic forecasters complicate travel forecasts. The hospitality sector’s fortunes are increasingly tethered to domestic stability rather than global demand.
The hospitality and REIT sectors in 2025 embody fragile optimism. Despite macro and micro headwinds—from cautious investors to uneven international travel—underlying stability persists. The easing of capital costs, improved transaction flow, and resilience in select markets hint that this period of adjustment may lay the groundwork for healthier growth ahead.
The question for investors is not whether recovery is possible but whether the fundamentals, capital, and conviction can finally align to reignite confidence.
If you’re navigating these shifting dynamics and seeking strategic insights into hospitality or real estate investment, our team at NewGen Advisory is here to help. We offer expert advisory services designed to help investors identify opportunity amid uncertainty and capitalize on emerging trends in a recalibrating market.
If you’re navigating these shifting dynamics and seeking strategic insights into hospitality or real estate investment, our team at NewGen Advisory is here to help. We offer expert advisory services designed to help investors identify opportunities amid uncertainty and capitalize on emerging trends in a recalibrating market. Contact us today to start a conversation about your next move in hospitality investment.
Jourdyn leads the strategic marketing initiatives for NewGen Advisory, overseeing brand development, market positioning, communications, and business growth efforts across the firm.
With more than a decade of experience in marketing and business development, Jourdyn specializes in building brands, creating demand-generation strategies, developing thought leadership programs, and executing integrated marketing campaigns that drive measurable business results. Her expertise spans digital marketing, public relations, content strategy, events, social media, lead generation, and corporate communications.
At NewGen, Jourdyn is responsible for shaping and executing the firm’s marketing strategy, ensuring consistent brand visibility across all channels while supporting advisors, clients, and strategic initiatives nationwide. She works closely with leadership to develop campaigns, elevate industry presence, strengthen client engagement, and position NewGen as a trusted advisor within the hospitality investment sector.
Jourdyn holds a Bachelor of Arts in Mass Communication and Media Studies from Arizona State University and a Master of Business Administration (MBA) with an emphasis in Marketing from Grand Canyon University.
Most mornings you’ll find Jourdyn in the gym before sunrise and spending time with her husband and children.
Allysia Howerton joined NewGen Advisory in 2026 as a Pipeline & Transaction Assistant, relocating from St. Louis, MO to Arizona to take on the role. She brings a background spanning property management, client services, sales, and administrative leadership, with a track record of managing complex workflows and keeping transactions moving efficiently from inception to close.
Known for her organization, attention to detail, and relationship-driven approach, Allysia supports transaction management, pipeline coordination, and day-to-day brokerage operations — and is passionate about growing her career within the hospitality real estate industry.
Outside of work, she enjoys discovering new coffee shops and restaurants, traveling to experience new cultures, and spending time with her dogs.
2 years
Josie Numedahl joined NewGen Advisory in July 2024 as a Real Estate Assistant (REA). Originally from Iowa, she relocated to Arizona to pursue her education, graduating from Grand Canyon University in 2022 with a Bachelor’s degree in Marketing and Advertising.
Josie began her professional career as a recruiter in the finance and accounting sector, and brings that client-facing, detail-oriented background to her work at NewGen.
Outside of work, she enjoys reading, hiking, exploring local coffee shops, and spending time with friends.
X years
Anthony is the Staff Accountant for NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC, working directly under CFO Michael Lepore to handle day-to-day accounting functions across all NewGen operations.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets.
Prior to joining NewGen, Anthony completed coursework at Paradise Valley Community College before co-founding a family business that produced custom-wrapped die-cast model cars for corporate clients — handling vehicle customization, display stands, and branded packaging. Serving as Director of Operations, he gained hands-on experience in management, production workflows, and running a business from the ground up.
Outside of work, Anthony is a lifelong ice hockey player with a passion for motorsports — particularly motocross and classic cars. Among his favorites: the 1963 C2 Corvette Sting Ray, the 1965 Shelby Cobra S/C, and the 1971 Plymouth Hemi ‘Cuda. He hopes to one day own and operate a bookkeeping firm serving small businesses.
X years
Nick serves as Director of Operations for NewGen Worldwide and NewGen Advisory, bringing a detail-oriented, forward-thinking approach to supporting the company’s continued growth. A Minneapolis native, Nick studied at Denison University and the University of Minnesota before making his way to Arizona, where he now lives in Mesa.
He spent a decade in the hospitality industry as a server, bartender, and restaurant manager — hands-on experience that gave him a strong operational foundation and a natural fit within NewGen’s hospitality-focused business.
Outside of work, Nick is an avid writer with a passion for art, photography, and travel, and enjoys documenting his experiences through the lens.
X years
Nycole serves as Chief of Staff at NewGen Advisory, where she trains and manages the Real Estate Assistant (REA) team. She works closely with REAs to ensure agents receive consistent, high-quality support throughout every stage of a deal — from contract to close.
Alongside the Office Manager, Nycole leads onboarding for new agents, REAs, and team members across NewGen Worldwide’s subsidiaries, and has developed a training library to streamline the process for incoming staff. She is also actively involved in evaluating and implementing new platforms to improve agent and REA workflows, while providing leadership with the data needed to monitor KPIs and track revenue goals.
Her background in franchise operations management — spanning startups to scaling franchises — makes her a versatile and valuable member of the NewGen team.
20+ years
Michael is the Chief Financial Officer of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment and capital solutions firm focused on creative, flexible solutions. Michael and his team oversee day-to-day accounting, budgeting, forecasting, and financial modeling across all NewGen operations.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets.
Prior to joining NewGen, Michael built over 20 years of experience in accounting, tax, and operations management serving small to mid-sized businesses. He holds active CPA licenses in both New York and Arizona. His career spans public accounting — including a role as Audit Manager at PricewaterhouseCoopers — as well as private accounting and business ownership, giving him a broad, hands-on command of accounting and management functions. That dual perspective allows him to bring both tax strategy and business strategy to bear when evaluating financial decisions. He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) and the Arizona Society of Certified Public Accountants (ASCPA).
A proud Italian-American, Michael lives in Scottsdale with his wife, Patty, and their three children, Alyssa, Anthony, and Joey. Outside of work, he coaches ice hockey and has a passion for cooking Italian food.
X years
Kyle is a co-founder, Principal, and Chief Executive Officer of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment firm focused on creative, flexible solutions. Beyond his broad responsibilities as CEO, Kyle’s primary focus is leading Green Card Fund, developing and implementing capital solutions domestically and internationally, and identifying attractive investment opportunities.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets — a natural evolution of NewGen Worldwide’s business model, built on business partners Girish Patel and Dan Rama’s lifetime experience in the industry. Kyle’s financial acumen and creative approach to structuring deals help NewGen Advisory clients identify and secure profitable opportunities.
Kyle earned a B.A. in Interdisciplinary Studies from Arizona State University with a focus in Business and Urban Planning. He has long been involved with the Greater Phoenix Economic Council’s (GPEC) International Leadership Council, and in 2016 was elected to the Board of Directors of Invest in the USA (IIUSA), the national EB-5 trade association, where he actively contributes to legislative reform efforts and the permanent reauthorization of the EB-5 program.
Kyle splits his time between company offices in Phoenix, AZ and Washington, D.C. Outside of work, he is an avid reader, global traveler, and snowboarder — and after logging over a million miles as a passenger, he has recently taken to the cockpit, learning to fly himself.
20+ years
Girish Patel is a co-founder and Principal of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment and capital solutions firm focused on creative, flexible solutions across hospitality and healthcare. Among his core responsibilities are leading strategic initiatives, overseeing financial management, and driving real estate investment acquisitions.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets — a natural evolution of NewGen Worldwide’s business model, grounded in Girish’s and business partner Dan Rama’s lifetime experience in the industry. Having grown up in his family’s hotel business as an immigrant, Girish developed a bottom-up understanding of hospitality — mastering operations before becoming an investor, lender, and consultant. That ground-level perspective, tested across multiple economic cycles, underpins his 20+ years as a successful business owner and brings a distinctive depth of insight to NGA’s clients and investors.
Committed to continuous learning and giving back, Girish established the RC Patel Memorial Scholarship for students pursuing careers in real estate investment. He also serves on the Board of Directors of Global Ties Arizona, an organization that strengthens international relationships by making exchange programs more impactful.
X years
Dan is a co-founder and Principal of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment and capital solutions firm focused on creative, flexible solutions. His primary role is leading NewGen Advisory and serving as its Designated Broker in Arizona.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets — a natural evolution of NewGen Worldwide’s business model, built on Dan’s and business partner Girish Patel’s lifetime experience in the industry. Throughout his career, Dan has been involved in the disposition of over $600 million in hospitality assets, advising clients on acquisitions, mergers, and divestitures across the United States.
Dan began his career as a hotel operator and owner in 1994 following his studies at the University of Arizona, going on to build a portfolio as a franchisee of Red Brick Pizza, Holiday Inn, Ramada Inn, and Comfort Suites. He holds General Manager Certifications from Holiday Inn, Motel 6, and Days Inn, and is a Certified Hotel Owner (CHO) with a Certification for Hotel Industry Analytics (CHIA).
Beyond his company responsibilities, Dan is an active industry voice. He serves as an Ambassador with the Asian American Hotel Owners Association (AAHOA) — the largest hospitality owners association in the U.S. — and previously served as its Southwest Regional Director. He also sits on the Board of Directors of the Arizona Lodging and Tourism Association (AZLTA).
Dan lives in Gilbert, AZ with his wife, Chetna, their son Suraj, and their daughter Sonya. Outside of work, he enjoys golf and cheering on the Denver Broncos.
15+ years
Suraj is the Chief Legal Officer of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and a member of its senior leadership team, where he contributes to the operational management and strategic planning of the company and its subsidiaries — including Green Card Fund and NewGen Advisory. NewGen Worldwide is a diversified firm engaged in real estate investments, creative capital solutions, and advisory services for the entrepreneurial investor.
Suraj first served as outside counsel for Green Card Fund and NewGen Worldwide from 2008 to 2014 before joining the organization as Chief Legal Officer. In this role, he leads the company’s legal, regulatory, and corporate governance functions, with responsibility spanning real estate, risk management, contractual relations, and investment strategies. He also oversees the business administration of NewGen Advisory, a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets.
Prior to joining NewGen, Suraj was Managing Partner of Bhakta & Associates, PLLC, a full-service business law firm where he represented a broad range of clients across acquisitions and sales, corporate structuring, contracts, franchise law, development and construction, and equity and debt financing.
A native of Ohio, Suraj graduated from The Ohio State University in 1999 with a B.S. in Business Administration and earned his J.D. from Case Western Reserve University in 2002. He resides in Peoria, AZ with his wife, Neena, and their two sons, Shiv and Soham.
