The U.S. economy continues to expand, but hotel investors are facing a very different story. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) and average daily rate (ADR) growth remain stubbornly low despite stable GDP gains. That divergence has many asking: Is the hotel industry entering its own recession?
Recent data from STR and CoStar reveal just how sharp the slowdown has become. Year-to-date RevPAR growth is up only 0.2%, while ADR has increased just 1%, both well below inflation. This means hotels are actually earning less in real terms—a concerning signal for a sector that once led post-pandemic recovery. The disconnect between macroeconomic resilience and micro-level stagnation suggests a deeper, sector-specific slowdown may be unfolding.
The select-service hotel segment—once the industry’s darling—is now under intense pressure. Baird recently downgraded RLJ Lodging Trust to Neutral and added a bearish pick on Summit Hotel Properties (INN) after several months of disappointing RevPAR trends.
According to the report, September RevPAR came in 100–200 basis points below expectations, marking the fourth straight month of negative growth. Leisure demand has softened across nearly all markets, and guests are increasingly opting for discounted or prepaid rates instead of standard bookings.
Even traditional corporate and government segments—normally stabilizers for this tier—are faltering. Analysts see unfavorable cycle dynamics and weak near-term visibility, predicting continued earnings pressure through at least early 2026.
The takeaway: select-service REITs are in a reset period, facing slower growth, tighter margins, and limited pricing power.
Against that backdrop, Noble Investment Group’s acquisition of 51 Courtyard by Marriott hotels from Clarion Partners stands out as a rare show of confidence. The portfolio spans 7,528 rooms across 25 U.S. states—a true nationwide footprint in the hotel for sale space.
Though pricing wasn’t disclosed, estimates based on comparable data suggest Noble’s all-in cost could range between $750 million and $1 billion, depending on capital expenditure assumptions. A capex-per-room analysis implies that even at a moderate $100,000–$120,000 purchase price per key, the deal would land well below replacement cost.
Clarion had already invested $250 million in renovations between 2019 and 2024, roughly $5 million per hotel. That recent refresh lowers Noble’s immediate renovation burden, allowing the group to focus on operational optimization rather than heavy construction.
This looks like a textbook counter-cyclical acquisition: buying stable, branded assets in a downturn, backed by a large domestic pension fund partner. It’s a signal that institutional investors still see hotels for sale as long-term winners—just not at yesterday’s prices.
While public REITs are grappling with compressed share prices, private capital continues to quietly accumulate real estate. Realty Income’s (“O”) launch of its $716 million Core Plus Fund exemplifies this shift. The fund—seeded with 183 income-generating properties—marks O’s move deeper into private commercial real estate, a space roughly 10 times the size of the public REIT market.
As O’s CEO noted, the $2 trillion REIT sector is dwarfed by the $20 trillion private CRE market. That means the most active hotel transactions today are happening off the public radar, where patient capital is targeting durable cash flows rather than quarterly performance.
This divergence reinforces a key theme of the slowdown: the public market is retreating from risk, while private capital is stepping in to capture discounted long-term opportunities.
STR and CoStar’s analysts have called this trend what it likely is—a secular slowdown. Despite solid macroeconomic indicators, hotel metrics remain muted.
Several structural factors are driving the stagnation:
These signals align with what many operators are reporting—shrinking margins, softer demand, and lower pricing power even in peak months. While lower interest rates could offer relief, the fundamentals suggest that this slowdown is structural, not cyclical.
One recent transaction demonstrates that opportunities still exist for disciplined investors. Columbia Sussex’s acquisition of the 370-room Westin Westminster between Denver and Boulder for $113 million ($305K per key) reflects a selective, yield-driven approach to hospitality investing.
The deal includes an $8.5 million property improvement plan ($23K per key) and was financed through a $78 million CMBS loan at a 6.51% fixed rate—a structure yielding a 12% levered cash-on-cash return.
Despite broader weakness in RevPAR growth, this acquisition illustrates how private buyers are using smart leverage, moderate capex, and stable debt terms to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns. In short, while REITs are constrained by quarterly optics, private firms like Columbia Sussex can play the long game.
The hospitality sector is undeniably in a slowdown—perhaps even a sector-specific recession—but the story is more nuanced than pure decline. Public hotel REITs like RLJ are absorbing the brunt of earnings pressure, while private capital is quietly setting the stage for the next growth phase.
Noble’s Courtyard acquisition and Columbia Sussex’s Westin deal demonstrate that institutional investors are still confident in long-term fundamentals, provided the price and capex assumptions make sense. The capital hasn’t disappeared; it’s simply become more selective.
This cycle is less about survival and more about recalibration. Operators who control costs, preserve liquidity, and position for recovery are likely to emerge strongest when RevPAR growth stabilizes—potentially by 2026.
If you’re an investor, operator, or capital allocator seeking clarity on this evolving hotel cycle, contact us today.
Jourdyn leads the strategic marketing initiatives for NewGen Advisory, overseeing brand development, market positioning, communications, and business growth efforts across the firm.
With more than a decade of experience in marketing and business development, Jourdyn specializes in building brands, creating demand-generation strategies, developing thought leadership programs, and executing integrated marketing campaigns that drive measurable business results. Her expertise spans digital marketing, public relations, content strategy, events, social media, lead generation, and corporate communications.
At NewGen, Jourdyn is responsible for shaping and executing the firm’s marketing strategy, ensuring consistent brand visibility across all channels while supporting advisors, clients, and strategic initiatives nationwide. She works closely with leadership to develop campaigns, elevate industry presence, strengthen client engagement, and position NewGen as a trusted advisor within the hospitality investment sector.
Jourdyn holds a Bachelor of Arts in Mass Communication and Media Studies from Arizona State University and a Master of Business Administration (MBA) with an emphasis in Marketing from Grand Canyon University.
Most mornings you’ll find Jourdyn in the gym before sunrise and spending time with her husband and children.
Allysia Howerton joined NewGen Advisory in 2026 as a Pipeline & Transaction Assistant, relocating from St. Louis, MO to Arizona to take on the role. She brings a background spanning property management, client services, sales, and administrative leadership, with a track record of managing complex workflows and keeping transactions moving efficiently from inception to close.
Known for her organization, attention to detail, and relationship-driven approach, Allysia supports transaction management, pipeline coordination, and day-to-day brokerage operations — and is passionate about growing her career within the hospitality real estate industry.
Outside of work, she enjoys discovering new coffee shops and restaurants, traveling to experience new cultures, and spending time with her dogs.
2 years
Josie Numedahl joined NewGen Advisory in July 2024 as a Real Estate Assistant (REA). Originally from Iowa, she relocated to Arizona to pursue her education, graduating from Grand Canyon University in 2022 with a Bachelor’s degree in Marketing and Advertising.
Josie began her professional career as a recruiter in the finance and accounting sector, and brings that client-facing, detail-oriented background to her work at NewGen.
Outside of work, she enjoys reading, hiking, exploring local coffee shops, and spending time with friends.
X years
Anthony is the Staff Accountant for NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC, working directly under CFO Michael Lepore to handle day-to-day accounting functions across all NewGen operations.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets.
Prior to joining NewGen, Anthony completed coursework at Paradise Valley Community College before co-founding a family business that produced custom-wrapped die-cast model cars for corporate clients — handling vehicle customization, display stands, and branded packaging. Serving as Director of Operations, he gained hands-on experience in management, production workflows, and running a business from the ground up.
Outside of work, Anthony is a lifelong ice hockey player with a passion for motorsports — particularly motocross and classic cars. Among his favorites: the 1963 C2 Corvette Sting Ray, the 1965 Shelby Cobra S/C, and the 1971 Plymouth Hemi ‘Cuda. He hopes to one day own and operate a bookkeeping firm serving small businesses.
X years
Nick serves as Director of Operations for NewGen Worldwide and NewGen Advisory, bringing a detail-oriented, forward-thinking approach to supporting the company’s continued growth. A Minneapolis native, Nick studied at Denison University and the University of Minnesota before making his way to Arizona, where he now lives in Mesa.
He spent a decade in the hospitality industry as a server, bartender, and restaurant manager — hands-on experience that gave him a strong operational foundation and a natural fit within NewGen’s hospitality-focused business.
Outside of work, Nick is an avid writer with a passion for art, photography, and travel, and enjoys documenting his experiences through the lens.
X years
Nycole serves as Chief of Staff at NewGen Advisory, where she trains and manages the Real Estate Assistant (REA) team. She works closely with REAs to ensure agents receive consistent, high-quality support throughout every stage of a deal — from contract to close.
Alongside the Office Manager, Nycole leads onboarding for new agents, REAs, and team members across NewGen Worldwide’s subsidiaries, and has developed a training library to streamline the process for incoming staff. She is also actively involved in evaluating and implementing new platforms to improve agent and REA workflows, while providing leadership with the data needed to monitor KPIs and track revenue goals.
Her background in franchise operations management — spanning startups to scaling franchises — makes her a versatile and valuable member of the NewGen team.
20+ years
Michael is the Chief Financial Officer of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment and capital solutions firm focused on creative, flexible solutions. Michael and his team oversee day-to-day accounting, budgeting, forecasting, and financial modeling across all NewGen operations.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets.
Prior to joining NewGen, Michael built over 20 years of experience in accounting, tax, and operations management serving small to mid-sized businesses. He holds active CPA licenses in both New York and Arizona. His career spans public accounting — including a role as Audit Manager at PricewaterhouseCoopers — as well as private accounting and business ownership, giving him a broad, hands-on command of accounting and management functions. That dual perspective allows him to bring both tax strategy and business strategy to bear when evaluating financial decisions. He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) and the Arizona Society of Certified Public Accountants (ASCPA).
A proud Italian-American, Michael lives in Scottsdale with his wife, Patty, and their three children, Alyssa, Anthony, and Joey. Outside of work, he coaches ice hockey and has a passion for cooking Italian food.
X years
Kyle is a co-founder, Principal, and Chief Executive Officer of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment firm focused on creative, flexible solutions. Beyond his broad responsibilities as CEO, Kyle’s primary focus is leading Green Card Fund, developing and implementing capital solutions domestically and internationally, and identifying attractive investment opportunities.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets — a natural evolution of NewGen Worldwide’s business model, built on business partners Girish Patel and Dan Rama’s lifetime experience in the industry. Kyle’s financial acumen and creative approach to structuring deals help NewGen Advisory clients identify and secure profitable opportunities.
Kyle earned a B.A. in Interdisciplinary Studies from Arizona State University with a focus in Business and Urban Planning. He has long been involved with the Greater Phoenix Economic Council’s (GPEC) International Leadership Council, and in 2016 was elected to the Board of Directors of Invest in the USA (IIUSA), the national EB-5 trade association, where he actively contributes to legislative reform efforts and the permanent reauthorization of the EB-5 program.
Kyle splits his time between company offices in Phoenix, AZ and Washington, D.C. Outside of work, he is an avid reader, global traveler, and snowboarder — and after logging over a million miles as a passenger, he has recently taken to the cockpit, learning to fly himself.
20+ years
Girish Patel is a co-founder and Principal of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment and capital solutions firm focused on creative, flexible solutions across hospitality and healthcare. Among his core responsibilities are leading strategic initiatives, overseeing financial management, and driving real estate investment acquisitions.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets — a natural evolution of NewGen Worldwide’s business model, grounded in Girish’s and business partner Dan Rama’s lifetime experience in the industry. Having grown up in his family’s hotel business as an immigrant, Girish developed a bottom-up understanding of hospitality — mastering operations before becoming an investor, lender, and consultant. That ground-level perspective, tested across multiple economic cycles, underpins his 20+ years as a successful business owner and brings a distinctive depth of insight to NGA’s clients and investors.
Committed to continuous learning and giving back, Girish established the RC Patel Memorial Scholarship for students pursuing careers in real estate investment. He also serves on the Board of Directors of Global Ties Arizona, an organization that strengthens international relationships by making exchange programs more impactful.
X years
Dan is a co-founder and Principal of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment and capital solutions firm focused on creative, flexible solutions. His primary role is leading NewGen Advisory and serving as its Designated Broker in Arizona.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets — a natural evolution of NewGen Worldwide’s business model, built on Dan’s and business partner Girish Patel’s lifetime experience in the industry. Throughout his career, Dan has been involved in the disposition of over $600 million in hospitality assets, advising clients on acquisitions, mergers, and divestitures across the United States.
Dan began his career as a hotel operator and owner in 1994 following his studies at the University of Arizona, going on to build a portfolio as a franchisee of Red Brick Pizza, Holiday Inn, Ramada Inn, and Comfort Suites. He holds General Manager Certifications from Holiday Inn, Motel 6, and Days Inn, and is a Certified Hotel Owner (CHO) with a Certification for Hotel Industry Analytics (CHIA).
Beyond his company responsibilities, Dan is an active industry voice. He serves as an Ambassador with the Asian American Hotel Owners Association (AAHOA) — the largest hospitality owners association in the U.S. — and previously served as its Southwest Regional Director. He also sits on the Board of Directors of the Arizona Lodging and Tourism Association (AZLTA).
Dan lives in Gilbert, AZ with his wife, Chetna, their son Suraj, and their daughter Sonya. Outside of work, he enjoys golf and cheering on the Denver Broncos.
15+ years
Suraj is the Chief Legal Officer of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and a member of its senior leadership team, where he contributes to the operational management and strategic planning of the company and its subsidiaries — including Green Card Fund and NewGen Advisory. NewGen Worldwide is a diversified firm engaged in real estate investments, creative capital solutions, and advisory services for the entrepreneurial investor.
Suraj first served as outside counsel for Green Card Fund and NewGen Worldwide from 2008 to 2014 before joining the organization as Chief Legal Officer. In this role, he leads the company’s legal, regulatory, and corporate governance functions, with responsibility spanning real estate, risk management, contractual relations, and investment strategies. He also oversees the business administration of NewGen Advisory, a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets.
Prior to joining NewGen, Suraj was Managing Partner of Bhakta & Associates, PLLC, a full-service business law firm where he represented a broad range of clients across acquisitions and sales, corporate structuring, contracts, franchise law, development and construction, and equity and debt financing.
A native of Ohio, Suraj graduated from The Ohio State University in 1999 with a B.S. in Business Administration and earned his J.D. from Case Western Reserve University in 2002. He resides in Peoria, AZ with his wife, Neena, and their two sons, Shiv and Soham.
