The hospitality industry is transitioning into a new phase defined by recalibration rather than disruption. Three significant themes are emerging from this week’s data: Choice Hotels’ evolving path toward 2026, the cooling but increasingly strategic construction pipeline, and two notable portfolio transactions that signal how capital is repositioning across the hotel landscape. Taken together, these developments offer a clear window into how owners, developers, and investors are thinking about RevPAR, supply fundamentals, and asset selection heading into the next cycle.
Choice Hotels (CHH) continues to face pressure from investors skeptical of near-term performance in the midscale and economy segments. Even after the company raised its annual Adjusted EBITDA guidance, the market remains uneasy. Much of that tension reflects broader concerns about the lower-end consumer, whose spending patterns have been uneven throughout the year.
A close look at Baird’s analysis shows that RevPAR stabilization is the key factor shaping how investors view Choice’s near-term outlook. Without improvement in the first half of 2026, sentiment will likely remain muted. But if performance stabilizes—even modestly—the company’s valuation may finally begin to reflect its underlying fundamentals.
Baird projects $650 million in Adjusted EBITDA for 2026, about 4% growth year-over-year. The model is built on several assumptions:
What’s striking is the gap between the forecasted fundamentals and the market’s cautious stance. With CHH trading at more than a 6% free cash flow yield, the stock underperformance suggests sentiment has swung too far negative—unless RevPAR deteriorates further.
Choice’s international business is quickly becoming a material contributor to earnings. The company expects $39 million in international Adjusted EBITDA in 2025 and more than $50 million by 2027. This growth reflects higher effective franchise royalty rates and stronger deal structures across its global footprint.
The shift also provides a counterweight to domestic volatility. As the brand deepens its international presence, a more diversified earnings base strengthens long-term stability—something investors will look for as domestic segments work through softer demand.
Much of the hesitation around Choice stems from uncertainty about how quickly domestic demand will improve and whether the company will moderate investment spending as promised. With development costs still elevated, reducing outlays for brands like Cambria and Everhome in 2026 and 2027 will be important for strengthening free cash flow.
Yet when looking at the data, it’s clear the fundamentals are sturdier than investor sentiment implies. If RevPAR flattens and international earnings continue to climb, the company could enter 2026 with far more operational and financial momentum than many are currently pricing in.
The latest construction numbers show 131,839 rooms under construction, a slight decrease of 271 rooms from the previous period. That’s a significant improvement from July’s decline of more than 11,000 rooms, signaling that the pipeline may be finding its natural bottom.
Rather than pulling back dramatically, developers appear to be making more precise decisions about which projects to pause and which to advance—a sign of discipline rather than distress.
Unlike the sharp, concentrated declines seen earlier in the year, the October data shows softer pullbacks across every region. No area stands out as excessively weak, suggesting a broad industry recalibration rather than localized challenges.
This pattern reflects a market adjusting to high financing costs and tighter underwriting standards. Developers are being selective, prioritizing projects with strong operating potential and delaying those that no longer make economic sense.
One of the most defining trends in today’s pipeline is the continued rise of extended stay. Around 46,692 rooms under construction fall into this segment, which accounts for about one-third of all new supply. In the economy and midscale categories, extended stay is even more dominant, representing 55% of rooms under construction.
The appeal is clear: extended-stay properties typically cost less to build, operate with leaner staffing, and produce more consistent margins. They benefit from workforce travel, relocation demand, long-term business stays, and infrastructure-related projects. In today’s environment, those attributes make extended stay the most “financeable” product for banks and private lenders.
Developers are signaling where they see stable demand and where construction risk feels justified. Lower chain scales with extended stay components are rising, while upscale and full-service development remain subdued due to higher operating costs and uncertain demand patterns.
For investors, this supply mix sets the stage for potential room night compression in higher-end segments a few years from now. With construction heavily skewed toward extended stay, segments like upper-upscale could face tighter supply conditions if demand rebounds faster than new projects enter the market.
Rialto Capital Management’s quiet acquisition—or potential takeover—of 40 Wyndham-branded hotels stands out due to its scale and unusual profile. These Travelodge and Baymont properties rarely appear in CMBS loan pools, yet the characteristics resemble a distressed resolution.
The portfolio appears to have originated from a single owner, indicating a possible surrender or forced transaction. At the same time, the asset class doesn’t typically align with CMBS financing, suggesting a more complex
backstory. Regardless of the structure, the move signals renewed interest in distressed or semi-distressed economies and midscale properties, particularly those with repositioning potential.
A more challenging element of the deal is the operational model. Without an ownership team specializing in these property types, the next steps for the portfolio may rely heavily on partnerships or third-party management—an approach that comes with risks if execution is not tightly managed.
On the opposite end of the strategy spectrum, Noble Investment Group’s purchase of 31 Sonesta Simply Suites reflects a targeted strategy built around real estate fundamentals rather than long-term brand loyalty. The properties transition from brand-managed to franchise mode, and Noble is betting on the underlying locations’ long-term value—even with the Sonesta flag in place.
Because the deal includes long-term franchise agreements, the likely play is a combination of stabilization and eventual repositioning once the contractual runway shortens. This aligns with broader market trends: investors are prioritizing real estate quality first and brand alignment second, especially in a supply environment where replacement cost advantages are increasingly meaningful.
The hospitality industry is moving through a period of recalibration rather than retrenchment. Choice Hotels’ long-term fundamentals appear stronger than investor sentiment reflects. The construction pipeline is cooling, but more selectively and strategically than earlier this year. And major portfolio movements reveal a clear preference for select-service and extended-stay assets with strong real estate underpinnings.
As the market heads toward 2026, owners, investors, and developers should reassess their positioning considering these trends. This is a moment to evaluate whether your assets, pipeline plans, or acquisition targets align with where demand—and capital—is moving.
If you’re exploring acquisitions, evaluating development opportunities, or considering a strategic exit, our team can help you assess value, risk, and timing. Contact us to position your portfolio effectively for the next cycle.
Jourdyn leads the strategic marketing initiatives for NewGen Advisory, overseeing brand development, market positioning, communications, and business growth efforts across the firm.
With more than a decade of experience in marketing and business development, Jourdyn specializes in building brands, creating demand-generation strategies, developing thought leadership programs, and executing integrated marketing campaigns that drive measurable business results. Her expertise spans digital marketing, public relations, content strategy, events, social media, lead generation, and corporate communications.
At NewGen, Jourdyn is responsible for shaping and executing the firm’s marketing strategy, ensuring consistent brand visibility across all channels while supporting advisors, clients, and strategic initiatives nationwide. She works closely with leadership to develop campaigns, elevate industry presence, strengthen client engagement, and position NewGen as a trusted advisor within the hospitality investment sector.
Jourdyn holds a Bachelor of Arts in Mass Communication and Media Studies from Arizona State University and a Master of Business Administration (MBA) with an emphasis in Marketing from Grand Canyon University.
Most mornings you’ll find Jourdyn in the gym before sunrise and spending time with her husband and children.
Allysia Howerton joined NewGen Advisory in 2026 as a Pipeline & Transaction Assistant, relocating from St. Louis, MO to Arizona to take on the role. She brings a background spanning property management, client services, sales, and administrative leadership, with a track record of managing complex workflows and keeping transactions moving efficiently from inception to close.
Known for her organization, attention to detail, and relationship-driven approach, Allysia supports transaction management, pipeline coordination, and day-to-day brokerage operations — and is passionate about growing her career within the hospitality real estate industry.
Outside of work, she enjoys discovering new coffee shops and restaurants, traveling to experience new cultures, and spending time with her dogs.
2 years
Josie Numedahl joined NewGen Advisory in July 2024 as a Real Estate Assistant (REA). Originally from Iowa, she relocated to Arizona to pursue her education, graduating from Grand Canyon University in 2022 with a Bachelor’s degree in Marketing and Advertising.
Josie began her professional career as a recruiter in the finance and accounting sector, and brings that client-facing, detail-oriented background to her work at NewGen.
Outside of work, she enjoys reading, hiking, exploring local coffee shops, and spending time with friends.
X years
Anthony is the Staff Accountant for NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC, working directly under CFO Michael Lepore to handle day-to-day accounting functions across all NewGen operations.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets.
Prior to joining NewGen, Anthony completed coursework at Paradise Valley Community College before co-founding a family business that produced custom-wrapped die-cast model cars for corporate clients — handling vehicle customization, display stands, and branded packaging. Serving as Director of Operations, he gained hands-on experience in management, production workflows, and running a business from the ground up.
Outside of work, Anthony is a lifelong ice hockey player with a passion for motorsports — particularly motocross and classic cars. Among his favorites: the 1963 C2 Corvette Sting Ray, the 1965 Shelby Cobra S/C, and the 1971 Plymouth Hemi ‘Cuda. He hopes to one day own and operate a bookkeeping firm serving small businesses.
X years
Nick serves as Director of Operations for NewGen Worldwide and NewGen Advisory, bringing a detail-oriented, forward-thinking approach to supporting the company’s continued growth. A Minneapolis native, Nick studied at Denison University and the University of Minnesota before making his way to Arizona, where he now lives in Mesa.
He spent a decade in the hospitality industry as a server, bartender, and restaurant manager — hands-on experience that gave him a strong operational foundation and a natural fit within NewGen’s hospitality-focused business.
Outside of work, Nick is an avid writer with a passion for art, photography, and travel, and enjoys documenting his experiences through the lens.
X years
Nycole serves as Chief of Staff at NewGen Advisory, where she trains and manages the Real Estate Assistant (REA) team. She works closely with REAs to ensure agents receive consistent, high-quality support throughout every stage of a deal — from contract to close.
Alongside the Office Manager, Nycole leads onboarding for new agents, REAs, and team members across NewGen Worldwide’s subsidiaries, and has developed a training library to streamline the process for incoming staff. She is also actively involved in evaluating and implementing new platforms to improve agent and REA workflows, while providing leadership with the data needed to monitor KPIs and track revenue goals.
Her background in franchise operations management — spanning startups to scaling franchises — makes her a versatile and valuable member of the NewGen team.
20+ years
Michael is the Chief Financial Officer of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment and capital solutions firm focused on creative, flexible solutions. Michael and his team oversee day-to-day accounting, budgeting, forecasting, and financial modeling across all NewGen operations.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets.
Prior to joining NewGen, Michael built over 20 years of experience in accounting, tax, and operations management serving small to mid-sized businesses. He holds active CPA licenses in both New York and Arizona. His career spans public accounting — including a role as Audit Manager at PricewaterhouseCoopers — as well as private accounting and business ownership, giving him a broad, hands-on command of accounting and management functions. That dual perspective allows him to bring both tax strategy and business strategy to bear when evaluating financial decisions. He is a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) and the Arizona Society of Certified Public Accountants (ASCPA).
A proud Italian-American, Michael lives in Scottsdale with his wife, Patty, and their three children, Alyssa, Anthony, and Joey. Outside of work, he coaches ice hockey and has a passion for cooking Italian food.
X years
Kyle is a co-founder, Principal, and Chief Executive Officer of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment firm focused on creative, flexible solutions. Beyond his broad responsibilities as CEO, Kyle’s primary focus is leading Green Card Fund, developing and implementing capital solutions domestically and internationally, and identifying attractive investment opportunities.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets — a natural evolution of NewGen Worldwide’s business model, built on business partners Girish Patel and Dan Rama’s lifetime experience in the industry. Kyle’s financial acumen and creative approach to structuring deals help NewGen Advisory clients identify and secure profitable opportunities.
Kyle earned a B.A. in Interdisciplinary Studies from Arizona State University with a focus in Business and Urban Planning. He has long been involved with the Greater Phoenix Economic Council’s (GPEC) International Leadership Council, and in 2016 was elected to the Board of Directors of Invest in the USA (IIUSA), the national EB-5 trade association, where he actively contributes to legislative reform efforts and the permanent reauthorization of the EB-5 program.
Kyle splits his time between company offices in Phoenix, AZ and Washington, D.C. Outside of work, he is an avid reader, global traveler, and snowboarder — and after logging over a million miles as a passenger, he has recently taken to the cockpit, learning to fly himself.
20+ years
Girish Patel is a co-founder and Principal of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment and capital solutions firm focused on creative, flexible solutions across hospitality and healthcare. Among his core responsibilities are leading strategic initiatives, overseeing financial management, and driving real estate investment acquisitions.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets — a natural evolution of NewGen Worldwide’s business model, grounded in Girish’s and business partner Dan Rama’s lifetime experience in the industry. Having grown up in his family’s hotel business as an immigrant, Girish developed a bottom-up understanding of hospitality — mastering operations before becoming an investor, lender, and consultant. That ground-level perspective, tested across multiple economic cycles, underpins his 20+ years as a successful business owner and brings a distinctive depth of insight to NGA’s clients and investors.
Committed to continuous learning and giving back, Girish established the RC Patel Memorial Scholarship for students pursuing careers in real estate investment. He also serves on the Board of Directors of Global Ties Arizona, an organization that strengthens international relationships by making exchange programs more impactful.
X years
Dan is a co-founder and Principal of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and its subsidiaries Green Card Fund, LLC and NewGen Advisory, LLC — a diversified real estate investment and capital solutions firm focused on creative, flexible solutions. His primary role is leading NewGen Advisory and serving as its Designated Broker in Arizona.
Green Card Fund (greencardfund.com) is a USCIS-recognized EB-5 Regional Center authorized to raise foreign capital for domestic development projects. EB-5 investors fund community-need projects and receive an immigration benefit in exchange for job creation. To date, GCF has facilitated over $125 million in foreign direct investment, delivered immigration benefits to more than 250 families, and created over 2,500 jobs in healthcare, education, and hospitality across Arizona and Washington, D.C.
NewGen Advisory (newgenadv.com) is a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets — a natural evolution of NewGen Worldwide’s business model, built on Dan’s and business partner Girish Patel’s lifetime experience in the industry. Throughout his career, Dan has been involved in the disposition of over $600 million in hospitality assets, advising clients on acquisitions, mergers, and divestitures across the United States.
Dan began his career as a hotel operator and owner in 1994 following his studies at the University of Arizona, going on to build a portfolio as a franchisee of Red Brick Pizza, Holiday Inn, Ramada Inn, and Comfort Suites. He holds General Manager Certifications from Holiday Inn, Motel 6, and Days Inn, and is a Certified Hotel Owner (CHO) with a Certification for Hotel Industry Analytics (CHIA).
Beyond his company responsibilities, Dan is an active industry voice. He serves as an Ambassador with the Asian American Hotel Owners Association (AAHOA) — the largest hospitality owners association in the U.S. — and previously served as its Southwest Regional Director. He also sits on the Board of Directors of the Arizona Lodging and Tourism Association (AZLTA).
Dan lives in Gilbert, AZ with his wife, Chetna, their son Suraj, and their daughter Sonya. Outside of work, he enjoys golf and cheering on the Denver Broncos.
15+ years
Suraj is the Chief Legal Officer of NewGen Worldwide, LLC and a member of its senior leadership team, where he contributes to the operational management and strategic planning of the company and its subsidiaries — including Green Card Fund and NewGen Advisory. NewGen Worldwide is a diversified firm engaged in real estate investments, creative capital solutions, and advisory services for the entrepreneurial investor.
Suraj first served as outside counsel for Green Card Fund and NewGen Worldwide from 2008 to 2014 before joining the organization as Chief Legal Officer. In this role, he leads the company’s legal, regulatory, and corporate governance functions, with responsibility spanning real estate, risk management, contractual relations, and investment strategies. He also oversees the business administration of NewGen Advisory, a full-service commercial real estate brokerage specializing in hospitality assets.
Prior to joining NewGen, Suraj was Managing Partner of Bhakta & Associates, PLLC, a full-service business law firm where he represented a broad range of clients across acquisitions and sales, corporate structuring, contracts, franchise law, development and construction, and equity and debt financing.
A native of Ohio, Suraj graduated from The Ohio State University in 1999 with a B.S. in Business Administration and earned his J.D. from Case Western Reserve University in 2002. He resides in Peoria, AZ with his wife, Neena, and their two sons, Shiv and Soham.
